如果不先看看2022年的经济，我们就不能讨论2023年的库存和供应链. 天气并不总是晴朗的，而且这种情况短期内也不会改变. 几乎所有企业都受到了供应链中断和通胀上升的影响.3 percent in August 2022. 最重要的是，企业主正在与不断上涨的员工成本作斗争，并面临可能出现的经济衰退.
So how will all of this impact your business? A few ways. 过多的库存会限制企业的灵活性. 购买太多不能快速流动的存货会耗尽你经营企业所需的可用现金, but with supply chain concerns over the last three years, 你也不想处于无法获得库存的境地. 对于那些觉得自己必须在这两个极端之间“穿针引线”的企业主来说，这一直是一场持久战. 为了找到平衡，你需要熟悉库存和供应链管理，以及它们如何成为帮助你开展业务的工具.
Inventory Management vs. Supply Chain Management
供应链管理监督从原材料和生产采购到最终分销的产品流程. 库存管理是影响订购的程序和流程的总称, receiving, storing, tracking, and accounts for all of the goods that a business sells. It is important to know the right level of inventory to hold. You should ask yourself these questions:
- 你的库存水平是基于“及时生产”还是“万一生产”?
- 准时制是丰田公司在20世纪70年代开发的，目的是在最短的时间内满足消费者的需求. For example, 零件将在制造过程中需要它们的地方附近订购和交付. 自2019冠状病毒病肆虐全球以来，当产品在供应链中断之前很容易获得时，这种做法效果很好.
- Just-in-Case是由于供应链中断而产生的新术语. Manufacturers are now beginning to look at:
- Can they develop the parts/products that are needed in-house?
- Do they have multiple supplier relationships as back-ups?
- And are there domestic suppliers who can provide the product?
- 你是否在持续的基础上积极地审查你的库存动向?
- 谁负责管理你的库存水平，你有没有给他们必要的工具和权力在你的公司取得成功? 你是否每年都有一个程序来评估你生产的销售不佳的产品，并决定你是否应该不再生产这些产品? Slow-moving inventory is equivalent to poor cash flow. If you struggle with this problem, 现在是时候检查你的业务，决定你不应该再生产什么产品了. 如果你能删减10%的成品, 你或许可以解决部分库存缓慢的问题.
- 你多久评估一次采购成本，以确定何时需要提高产品价格? The days of one or two annual price adjustments are over. To stay profitable and sustainable, 你必须积极主动地把涨价的消息告诉顾客. 像木材和钢材这样的商品，价格每天都在变化，你必须做好调整的准备.
Cash Flow Management
We know that inventory management affects your cash flow, 所以你需要确定手头有多少库存是最好的. Here are some other things to help manage your cash flow:
- Monitor your accounts receivable. You do not want to end up becoming the bank for your customers. During times when the economy begins to slow, 顾客持有现金的时间开始变长，这意味着与交易发生时相比，你得到报酬的时间要晚一些. When this happens, 你必须为自己利用其他的现金来源，比如信用额度来满足你的业务现金需求.
- Have a plan for paying your accounts payable. 你的应收帐款天数(你收到付款的速度)和应收帐款天数(你支付账单的速度)的比率是否匹配?? 尽量使你的付款与客户的付款相匹配. 这将有助于利用尽可能多的信用额度和其他融资渠道, which comes with interest.
- 控制何时以及多久从公司向所有者进行分发. 分配应该在现金流最强劲的时候进行.
- Manage your relationship with your bank. Periodically use your line of credit to show you still need it. Have the proper amount of leveraging to help with cash flow. 继续与你的银行代表交谈，让他们知道生意进展如何. 当你需要增加资金时，不要害怕向他们寻求帮助.
- Evaluate your staffing needs. 当形势紧张时，留住所有员工并不总是可能的. While it’s not an ideal situation, 你应该知道什么时候该放手. 最好的做法是在你不得不做出解雇某人的决定之前，对你的团队进行排名. By doing this before, 你把个人因素排除在决策之外，这会使你的决策变得更加困难.
Improving Cash Flow
It’s not enough to know what your pain points are. You will need to know how to track your business cash flow.
- 了解您的关键绩效指标(kpi)以及您将监控哪些指标. For example, Current Ratio, Inventory Days Ratio, Accounts Receivable Days Ratio, Accounts Payable Days Ratio, Capacity Utilization Ratio, Scrap Percentage Ratio, Customer Return Rate, 和交货期比率是一些很好的监测制造商.
- Prepare a budget and review all expenses. Continually update throughout the year. It is not an annual exercise!
- Reduce waste. Consider the benefits of Lean manufacturing, 在生产系统中最小化浪费，同时最大化生产效率.
- Renegotiate with suppliers.
- 为客户提供折扣以换取提前付款.
- Accept multiple forms of payment. 信用卡、ACH和其他电子支付方式对企业至关重要. 不提供这种服务可能会迫使消费者到别处寻找商品.
- Be proactive with late payers. 你需要找到一个合适的人来做这份工作——一个坚定、直接、没有威胁的人.
2008 vs. 2023
Looking back at history, in 2008 when the last recession hit, many companies were faced with weaker balance sheets. 他们负债累累，没有为这些挑战做好准备. The difference in 2023, is the balance sheets are stronger, there is lower debt leverage, and most businesses learned from their experience in 2008, coming to the table better prepared to learn from past mistakes, quicker to pivot or adapt, and have a plan in place for a possible recession.
我们有一个制造团队随时准备为您的业务需求服务. Reach out to us, we are happy to help.
By Dustin Raber, CPA, CMP, Principal (Wooster office)